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Capital Markets by Bernard J. Foley (auth.)

By Bernard J. Foley (auth.)

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Extra resources for Capital Markets

Example text

Fundamental analysis; 3. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Technical Analysis Technical analysis, also referred to as Chartism, takes the view that in attempting to predict the future course of share prices it is useful to focus on the past behaviour of such prices. Chartists argue that share prices move in trends and patterns which periodically repeat themselves so the key to making gains is to recognise these patterns before others. According to technical analysts it really does not matter in which industry or markets the company operates, the use of a chart is sufficient to detect the likely movement in the price of its shares.

There are a number of chart services which sell their products to the public and several large securities houses retain technical analysts to monitor various sectors of the market. Technical analysis is regarded in some quarters however as vested interest in quasi scientific clothing. The most damaging criticism of chartists comes from the idea that the market is informationally efficient. This view which has considerable academic support suggests that in a market where the participants are intelligent, self-motivated profit maximisers there will be a built-in incentive to exploit available information to form expectations about the likely behaviour of prices.

According to technical analysts it really does not matter in which industry or markets the company operates, the use of a chart is sufficient to detect the likely movement in the price of its shares. At any one time prices reflect the balance of supply and demand so that changes in price result from shifts in the balance of sentiment between buyers and sellers. Hence by tracking price behaviour it is possible to develop insights into their future movements. Thus analysts make use of different types of charts which indicate price changes over time in the hope that recognisable patterns will emerge.

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