Advanced Models for Project Management by Prof. L. Valadares Tavares (auth.)

By Prof. L. Valadares Tavares (auth.)

More than 40 years have handed because the early makes an attempt to version initiatives. a wide area of theoretical advancements has grown generating a excessive variety of analytical and numerical effects, however it turns out that the most version remains to be an analogous: the concept that of venture community. this idea has come to symbolize the 2 significant gains underlying the concept of a venture: the sequential and the aggressive nature of its parts, the project's actions. really, the sequential estate defines the constitution of the venture and the aggressive nature stems from using universal assets (facilities, items, apparatus, administration, etc.) to hold out the various actions. although, major advances were accomplished in undertaking modelling, permitting the construction of even more strong effects: A. the idea that of priority and the outline of actions has been generalized to supply a variety of lifelike illustration of initiatives. B. the stochastic learn of the positive factors of initiatives reminiscent of the period and value in their actions is performed by way of a number of analytical and numerical versions, permitting experimental and forecasting analyses. C. the allocation of assets will be now studied for extra complicated occasions and regulations. D. the monetary description of tasks is extra effectively studied and its optimization is carefully pursued. E. the evaluation and the evaluate of tasks now should be studied in the framework of multicriteria choice idea contemplating a number of views and helping the venture supervisor to pick the main acceptable compromises among chance, time and anticipated gains.

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This means that long tenD effects are poorly represented by financial analysis tending to ignore impacts above 20 or 25 years. This myopic nature is particularly serious if a. is high. ) . Thus, the assessment or evaluation of projects should be carried out within a more comprehensive and consistent framework, the financial perspective being just one dimension of such analysis. This topic is treated in Chapter VII. A very convenient strategy to increase the NPV of a project can be based on the anticipation of benefits and on the delay of costs.

The study of the total duration in tenus of D ={D(i):i = 1, ... ,N} has been developed since the early papers of Project Management (See, e. , Kelly, 1961 and Clark, 1962). The simplest case assumes that D is detenninistically known and then T can be computed by the Critical Path Method: a) The earliest start time of any activity, Ai, is given by assuming that ti = 0 for activities with Ji = 0 . b) The minimal T can be detennined by: T* = max{t. } . I I I c) The latest start time of any activity, Ai, compatible with T* is given by: t~ = min {t~ keKi - D(k)} making t; = T- D(i) for any activity Ai with K(i) = 0.

4) is defined by having I (i) = 0 (i) = 1 for any node, excepting the Start and the End (I (S) = 0; 0 (S) =1; I (E) = 1; 0 (E) = 0). A parallel-network (Fig. 4) is defined by having just two nodes, Sand E, with I(S) = O(E) = 0 and O(S) = I(E» 1. __ Series-network ~> O--~> 0 --~> ... 4 EXAMPLES OF SERIES-NETWORK AND OF PARALLEL-NETWORK The concept of precedence adopted so far implies that the start of i is conditioned by the end j. (Type CD). However, this concept can be generalized to cover three other situations: Type® End of j Type® Start of j --+ Start of i Type@ Start of j --+ End of i --+ End of i Basic models for project management 27 These new types are now easily represented adopting AoN and decomposing each activity into its start, its development and its end (Fig.

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